The dollar soared to almost 6.9 RMB exchange rate hit a 8 year low – Sohu news

The dollar soared to almost 6.9 RMB exchange rate hit a 8 year low, the dollar index on a Sohu news surged more than 100, it is the first time in December 7, 2015 on the eve of the Fed rate hike. (click to see the big picture) Trump won the election day, the U.S. stock index fell sharply after the first, the market quickly restored calm. Then the Trump administration program is clear, such as the U.S. version of Trump proposed 4 trillion infrastructure construction plan, will enhance U.S. average annual economic growth rate to 3.5% of the target, mainly through large-scale comprehensive tax cuts, deregulation, development of traditional energy and other measures to stimulate economic growth. The market is expected to be positive, and thus greatly contributed to the surge in the dollar index, in November 14th, the dollar index climbed to a record high since December 2015, rose to 100.22. In addition, the recent Fed officials are pushing up the hawkish stance of the Fed’s December rate hike may. Vice chairman of the Federal Reserve has also said on the 11 day of this month, the U.S. inflation and employment rate has been close to the Fed’s target, which laid the foundation for the Fed’s future interest rate hike. From the current RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, to understand the current devaluation of the pressure. Previously, Xiao Lisheng and Yu Yongding cooperation in research "on" the recent accelerated depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the article said, "this round of the RMB exchange rate is mainly based on the closing price + basket currency adjustment mechanism, the dollar index rose to a basket of currencies, the yuan against the dollar needs to stabilize the currency basket." The article said, alone, the two mechanisms have their own rationality, but together there will be some problems. According to the closing price, the domestic economic indicators good transfer of RMB exchange rate strengthened. According to the basket currency, when the dollar relative to the euro appreciation, the RMB against the U.S. dollar depreciation. Two mechanisms in the face of different shocks may cancel each other or strengthen each other, and ultimately the trend of the RMB exchange rate may be contrary to the fundamentals of the economy. The article refers to the "closing price + basket currency" mechanism under the four scenarios: the United Kingdom and the United States and Europe, Trump took the lead caused by the devaluation of the renminbi, are of the same kind. This situation is: the domestic economy is no improvement, while the dollar index started to soar. The two will be strong, so in the absence of further deterioration of the domestic economy, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate by the strong impact of the dollar began to depreciate rapidly. For example, in July of this year’s British influence back in Europe and October British Prime Minister May "hard back in Europe, the euro dollar pound slump, inflation, RMB is controlled by its strong drag on October devaluation, even in the short term depreciation of 12 trading days 1.5%, close to the past 8 months depreciation. And this time Trump came to power, as well as the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates superimposed factors.相关的主题文章: